The AFL season is heating up, and with five rounds left, the race for the top two spots is wide open. The Sydney Swans' sudden slide has opened up the race, and Essendon's surprising upset of GWS has had a significant impact on the wildcard race. The Run Home analyzes each club's remaining fixture and predicts the final ladder, with Fremantle leading the pack and a potential wildcard final between Geelong and St Kilda.
Fremantle, the current minor premiers, are on track to secure their first premiership since 2015. Their remaining games against West Coast, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Adelaide, and Carlton present a manageable challenge, with a projected win total of 19.65. Sydney Swans, despite a recent losing streak, remain in the top two race with a projected 16.75 wins, but their percentage edge over Adelaide, Brisbane, and Melbourne is crucial.
Hawthorn, with a projected 16.15 wins, has a real shot at finishing second, but their away game against Brisbane in a few weeks could be a challenge. Adelaide Crows, with a projected 15.3 wins, have increased their chances of making the top four, and their upcoming games against Essendon and Tigers could be pivotal. Melbourne, projected to finish 6th with 14.7 wins, still has a chance at the top four, but their percentage is an issue.
The Western Bulldogs, with 11 wins and a projected 13.5 wins, are almost locked into the finals, but their percentage could be a concern. Collingwood, with a projected 12.45 wins, needs one more win to secure a finals spot, and their games against Adelaide, Geelong, Hawthorn, and Brisbane will be crucial. Geelong, projected to finish 7th with 13.8 wins, has a narrow path to the top four, and their game against Melbourne next week is a must-win.
St Kilda, with a projected 11 wins, has a clear path to the finals, and their game against Gold Coast in Round 24 could be a 'live ladder watch'. GWS Giants, with a projected 11.75 wins, are the least predictable team, and their upcoming games against Sydney, Port Adelaide, Gold Coast, and West Coast will be crucial. Carlton, with a projected 10.35 wins, has a tough path to the finals, and their games against Gold Coast, St Kilda, and the Bulldogs will be challenging.
North Melbourne, with a projected 9.3 wins, has a difficult fixture, and their chances of making the wildcard are slim. Gold Coast Suns, with a projected 9 wins, have a 60% chance of playing finals if they win all five remaining games, but their chances are unlikely. Port Adelaide, with a projected 8 wins, and West Coast Eagles, with a projected 5.4 wins, are out of contention.
Essendon, with a projected 2.7 wins, is the least likely team to make the finals, but their percentage edge could be a factor. Richmond, with a projected 2.9 wins, has a slightly easier run home and is more likely to find a third win.
